The way the tournament is going, I love the fact that all probability models are going for a toss. England’s shocking display, SA’s losses …. enjoy! Anyway read on …
On the basis of different analyses, it is clear that the media is touting SA as favorites followed by Australia and India. As always, there is the disclaimer that we cannot ignore teams like Sri Lanka / Pakistan or even New Zealand.
Other parallel gossip include:
This is a great chance for one day cricket to stay alive and that if the tournament is interesting enough, ODI may continue to live else might soon die an unnatural death. Sponsorship deals will go begging and cricket loving corporates like LG, Pepsi, ING will recast their marketing and advertising budgets. Some Modi will change IPL’s full form to ING Pepsi LG Cup and divert all the money to a different tournament.
Yaaawn …. A late entrant like the T20 format has begun to stab the ODI format from behind its back. We have started to question the logic behind a 50 over match. Nobody is talking about a F40 or T35 or T30, it seems there is F50 or T20, nothing in between. This is deviation from earlier logic where ODIs were 60 over a side, then 55. It has stagnated at 50 overs a side for a long time now. In ODIs, 50 overs happen unless extraordinary circumstances force us to calculate what a Duck is Worth along with what a ‘Loo is’ supposed to show on a table also nicknamed the Duckworth Loo-is method.
Let me now jump to the point. Based on the schedule, I came up with a probability based calculation to get the expected points. I also notice that India meets WI only on the last day of the group match schedule. This means, Aus and Pak have higher chances of winning against WI. Reason being, West Indian full strength team might be back by then. This is again a disadvantage for India. Anyways, given where we are, here is my take on how things look like based on form and probability (due to subjective factors like weather conditions, current team structure, nature of pitch at SA etc)
Given the above scenarios, possible final could be Aus Vs Pak or SA vs Pak / SL.
Calculating actual probabilities for every team is a time consuming task and I would have to revise Bayes’ Theorem. But, taking a perspective from my approximation world, teams in descending order of probability to win the tournament are Pakistan, SA, SL, Australia, India, NZ, Eng and WI.
Being an India fan, obviously my heart lies elsewhere but my mathematical brain is pointing at a different direction.